Home
      Editorial Committies
      Aims & Scope
      Indexing
      Ethics
      Review Process
   
   
      Call for paper
      Submit an Article
      Payment Option
      FAQs
      Contact Us
   
   
      Current Issue
      Archives
      Special Issues
Volume 8 ~ Issue 7 ~ Version 2 (July 2018)

 


Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Peristaltic Flow Characteristics of Blood through Stenotic Artery under the influence of Magnetic Field and Slip Velocity

Country

::

India

Authors

::

Sushila Kumari || Rajbala Rathee || Jagdish Nandal

Page No.

::

01-11

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

The current analysis deals with a theoretical study on combined effect of both slip velocity and magnetic field on unsteady generalized non-Newtonian peristaltic flow with permeable wall of artery. A constant transverse magnetic field is applied on pulsatile blood flow and we are treating blood as an elastico-viscous, electrically conducting and incompressible fluid. Appropriate transformation methods are adopted to solve unsteady non-Newtonian axially symmetric momentum equation in cylindrical polar co-ordinate system with suitably prescribed conditions. To validate the applicability of the proposed analysis, analytical expressions for axial velocity, fluid acceleration, wall shear stress and volumetric flow rate are computed and obtained numerical results are depicted graphically for different values of flow variables of interest, to analyse the influence in axial velocity, wall shear stress and volumetric flow rate of streaming blood.

 

Keywords: Elastico-viscous fluid, slip velocity, selective permeability, transverse magnetic field, peristalsis, knudsen number.

[1]. Beaver G. S. and Joseph D. D. Boundary conditions at a naturally permeable wall. Journal of Fluid Mechanics.1967; 30: 197-207.
[2]. Lee J. S. and Fung Y. C. Flow in locally constricted tube at low Reynolds number. Journal of Applied Mechanics. 1970; 37: 9-16.
[3]. Oka S. and Murata T. A theoretical study of flow of blood in a capillary with permeable wall. Japaneese Journal of Applied Sciences. 1970; 9: 345-352.
[4]. Saffmann P. D. On the boundary conditions at the surface of a porous medium. Studies in Applied Mathematics. 1971; 50: 93-101.
[5]. Popel A. S., Regirer S.A. and Usick P.I. A continuum model of blood flow. Biorheology. 1974; 11: 427-437.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Image Retrieval Using the Centroid Based Shape Descriptor

Country

::

India

Authors

::

Prof. Jayadevi C Karur || Dr. Jagadeesh Pujari || Priyanka R Kabber

Page No.

::

12-17

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

Shape analysis is used in many application field including security applications, medical field ,agricultural field ,cyber crime and many more. A shape descriptor is the simplified representation of the images. These shape descriptor contain the information of that image which will help to store the image information and make easy comparison between the images or easy for matching the different shapes .The proposed method is centroid based shape descriptor. The type of shape descriptor used here is contour based shape descriptor. Distance from center of bounding box encompassing the edge image to farthest point on the edge is calculated. A circle is drawn using the distance mentioned above as radius (the farthest distance between centroid and edge pixel).............

 

Keywords: .............

[1]. Sonya Eini and Abdulah, Shape retrieval using Smallest Rectangle Centroid Distance, IJSP, Image Processing and Pattern Recognition Vol.6, No.4, August, 2013.
[2]. Yong Hu, Zuoyon Li, an Improved Shape Signature for Shape Representation and Image Retrieval, Journal of Software, Vol.8, No.11, November 2013.
[3]. Zhiyan Li, Junjie, Heng, Geometry-based 2D Shape Descriptor Retrieval in Large Databse, ICSP 2012.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Comparative and Analysis Study for Malicious Executable by Using Various Classification Algorithms

Country

::

Turkey

Authors

::

Sefer Kurnaz || Mokhalad Eesee Khudhur

Page No.

::

18-26

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

There are a lot of applications regarding the data mining methods in detecting malwares. One of the most widely utilized data mining methods is the Classification method. In our research, we are presenting a data mining classification procedure through applying machine learning algorithms to detect malicious executable files, and this study will investigate the approach of classification in some algorithms such as (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, KNN (k-Nearest Neighbors Classifier), and The Hoeffding Tree). In our classification process, we used some of well-known machine-learning algorithms by WEKA libraries, and then we train our dataset to detect malware. We made a comparative analysis between algorithms used and how they deal with the selected features based on the size of the data, to illustrate the performance efficiency. Where we got a high accuracy up to 98% with Random Forest. Moreover, this study is considered as a base for future studies regarding malware analysis through machine learning algorithms.

 

Keywords: Machine Learning Algorithms, Computer Malicious Executable Files, Decision Tree, Classification, Active Learning.

[1]. Zhuojun Ren and Guang Chen, "EntropyVis: Malware Classification," Image and Signal Processing, BioMedical Engineering and Informatics (CISP-BMEI), 2017 10th International Congress on,IEEE, pp. 1-6, 2017.
[2]. Hassan Najadat, Assem Alhawari and Huthifh Al_Rushdan, "Data Mining Classification Approaches for Malicious Executable File Detection," The Fourth International Conference on Computer Science, Computer Engineering, and Education Technologi (IEEE), 2017.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Drag Reduction of an After Burner Flame Stabilizer in Passive Condition

Country

::

India

Authors

::

Rakesh.C || Jafar M Sayed || M S Ganesha Prasad

Page No.

::

27-32

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

The technique of placing bluff bodies in downstream will nearly reduce the drag generated by single bodies. numerous numerical and test results have proved this phenomenon of drag reduction due to flow interference and placing the bluff bodies upstream and downstream of the flame stabilizer. A v-shaped gutter flame stabilizer is mostly used in afterburner of an aircraft turbine engine, which is used to hold the flame when the afterburner is in active condition. But when the burner is in passive condition the presence of gutter produce excess drag and pressure loss in the after burner section of the engine. Therefore it is important to reduce the pressure loss and drag generated by the flame stabilizer in afterburner.............

 

Keywords: Afterburner flame stabilizer, Drag reduction, Aerofoil shape gutter, v-shaped gutter, tandem bodies.

[1]. S.Nakanishi, W.W.Velie, and L.Bryant ,An investigation of effects of flame holder gutter shape on afterburner performance, NACA Research memorandum, NACA RM E53J14, Feb-1954
[2]. Kareem.A, Tracy Kijewski, Po-chienlu, Investigation of interference effects of group of finite cylinders, Journal of wind engineering and Industrial aerodynamics, Vol-77-78, pp.503-520, Sep-1998.
[3]. T.Morel and M.Bohn, Flow over two circular discs in tandem, Journal fluids Engineering, Vol-102, pp.104-111, March-1980.
[4]. A.Prasad and C.H.K. Williamson, A method for reduction of bluff body drag, Journal of wind engineering and Industrial aerodynamics, Vol-69-71, pp.155-167, Jul-Oct-1997.
[5]. S Srinivasan, J J Isaac, C.Rajashekar, A.Arokkiaswamy, Drag reduction of V gutter of an afterburner by tandem bluff bodies using CFD, OSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering (IOSRJMCE), Aug-2012

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Cool Pavements to Fight Urban Heat Islands

Country

::

India

Authors

::

VartikaTripathi || MohammedShahiqueSheeraz || Narendra KumarTripathi || R. K. Pandey

Page No.

::

33-35

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

Urban heat islands are an outcome of the heat absorption and reflection of solar energy with dark surfaces. It causes a significant rise in temperature in the urban areas during summer. Thereby, the energy demand increases with the rising demand for air conditioners. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emission gets elevated causing air pollution. Efforts to overcome the adverse effects focus primarily on incoming the reflective property of the environment. The increase in solar reflectance of the urban surface reduces its solar heat gain, lowers the temperature, and decreases the outflow of thermal infrared radiation into the atmosphere. Cool roofs and cool pavements minimize summer heat islands and improve the environment. Few authors have worked on cool pavements and cool roof, but the implementation is minimal. There are little research and policy recommendations for cool pavements in India. This study investigates the actual position on the field of cool pavements and proposes the campaign for the use of cool pavements in India.

[1]. American Concrete Paving Association (2002). Albedo: A Measure of Pavement Surface 1 Reflectance. R&T Update, Concrete Pavement Research and Technology, No. 3.05, 2.
[2]. Akbari, H., Menon, S., & Rosenfeld, A. (2009). Global cooling: increasing world-wide urban albedos to offset CO 2. Climatic change, 94(3-4), 275-286.
[3]. Akbari, H., Pomerantz, M., &Taha, H. (2001). Cool surfaces and shade trees to reduce energy use and improve air quality in urban areas. Solar energy, 70(3), 295-310.
[4]. Kendra K.Levine (2011). Institute of Transportation Studies Library at UC Berkeley.
[5]. EPA, U. (1986). Guideline on air quality models (revised). EPA-450/2-78-027R, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Design and Analysis of Automobile Pedal with Combined Brake and Accelerator

Country

::

India

Authors

::

G. Shanmugasundar || A. Jai Krishna || M. Harish || P. Yuan Shankar || R.Anbarasan || M. Muneeswaran

Page No.

::

36-40

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

The Automotive vehicle has become one of modern Society's deadliest killers, in addition to injuring thousands of lives every year. Nowadays the increment in the death rate of India is 20% because of the accidents on the highways. It is mainly due to the delay in the foot movement between the brake and accelerator pedals. Hence we have combined foot brake pedal and accelerator pedal movement. It essentially consists of a joint pedal for operating the brake and accelerator, arranged in such a form that its action to affect one or the other function is carried out without the possibility of error, and without one function interfering with the other. It is being observed that it takes longer to brake in an emergency with separate pedals. Reaction time, from onset of an accident stimulus until the brakes are initially applied, is 0-256 seconds with this one pedal system, versus 0.468 seconds under the conventional two pedal accelerator-brake systems. This saving of over 45 per cent in reaction time, results in the brakes of a vehicle being applied about 19 feet earlier at 60 mph for example. In addition, the driver would have this much more room to swerve and possibly avoid an otherwise serious situation ahead.

 

Keywords: Automotive, brakes, clutches, accidents, single pedal, reaction time

[1]. Richard Nilsson, Evaluation of combined brake accelerator pedal, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp.175-183, 2002.
[2]. Ajinkya Bhonge, Prashant Gunai, Kaushal Joshi Design and analysis of brake and gas pedal, International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, Vol.3, No.11, pp. 93-97, 2016.
[3]. Swapnil Pawar, Sagar Buchade, Omkar Patil, Anis Maneri, Prof. K. M. Jagadale , Design and development of combination of brake and accelerator pedal. Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, Vol. 3, No.10,pp.144-146, 2017.
[4]. N. Ramachandran, R.Raghul Design and fabrication of brake and accelerator by using single pedal International Journal of Advance Research in Science and Engineering, Vol.6, No.7,pp.276-283, 2017.
[5]. Pankaj Chhabra, Puneet Katyal, Vishal Gulati Concurrent design and prototyping of composite accelerator pedal International Journal of Advancements in Technology, Vol. 2 , No. 4,pp. 561-576, 2011.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

The synthesis and FTIR, Kinetics and TG/DTG/DTA study of Inter Penetrating Polymer Networks (IPNs) of Polyurethanes of polyol modified castor oil and TDI and cardanol based dyes

Country

::

India

Authors

::

M. K. Swain || P.G.R. Achary || Dr N. C. Pal

Page No.

::

41-50

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

In view of the fast consumption of the petroleum stock and pressing demand for the use of polymeric materials to keep pace with the rate of growth of the world's population the synthesis of polymers from agricultural products has achieved tremendous momentum at present all over the world. A number of Interpenetrating Polymer Networks were synthesized from polyol modified castor oil polyurethanes and cardanol based dyes. Characterizations of these polymers were performed by fourier transform infrared spectra and thermal analysis techniques such as thermogravimetric analysis, derivative thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis. The kinetic parameters such an activation energies and orders of reactions were determined by using Freeman – Anderson's method. The effect of changes in polyurethane to dye monomer weight ratio and NCO/OH molar ratio of polyurethanes on the properties of such polymer were studied.

 

Keywords: Cardanol, Cardanol Based Dye, Polyol Modified Castor Oil, Polyurethanes, Interpenetrating Polymer Network.

[1]. Suresh KI, Kishanprasa VS (2005) Ind Eng Chem Res 44(13):4504-4512
[2]. Praharaj D, Pal NC, Patra S, Lenka S (2004) Int J Plast Tech 8:172-179
[3]. Achary PGR, Biswal S, Mohapatra S, Pal NC (2010) Polym Plast Tech Eng 49(11):1114-1120
[4]. Yenwo GM, Manson JA, Pulido J, Sperling LH, Conde A, Devia N 91977) J Appl Polym Sci 21:1531-1541
[5]. Hepburn C (1995) In: Klempner D, Frisch KC (eds) Advance in interpenetrating polymer networks. Technomic Publishing AG, Basle

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Influences of minimum quantity lubrication parameters on cutting forces under cutting C45 carbon steel

Country

::

Vietnam

Authors

::

Le Van Canh || Pham Tuan Nghia || Tran Anh Son

Page No.

::

51-57

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

In metal cutting, cutting fluids have been proved having significant effects on cutting performance for many decades. Many lubrication techniques have been developed and minimum quantity lubrication (MQL) is one of those which is considered as a renewable technology. This technique has many advantages in reducing production cost, environmental concerns and human health damages. This paper presents an investigation to the influences of MQL parameters on cutting force which is known having a considerable effect on machining cost and product quality. Three MQL factors (air pressure, ratio of emulsion in fluid, vertical angle of nozzle on rake face) were assessed by using fitted regression model and Taguchi analyzing method. A regression equation was built and an optimal data set of three parameters was found under the experiment setup. However, the study is still limited and need be developed more to gain a better understanding of MQL technique and cutting conditions interaction to more types of responses such as tool wear, cutting temperature and surface roughness.

 

Keywords: Cutting forces, Minimum quantity lubrication, Nozzle position, Turning process.

[1]. M. P. Groover, Fundamentals of Modern Manufacturing: Materials, Processes, and Systems, John and Wiley and Sons (Inc., Danvers, MA). 2010.
[2]. R. Avila and A. Abrao, "The effect of cutting fluids on the machining of hardened AISI 4340 steel," Journal of Materials Processing Technology, vol. 119, no. 1-3, pp. 21-26, 2001.
[3]. T. D. Howes, H. K. Tönshoff, W. Heuer, and T. Howes, "Environmental Aspects of Grinding Fluids," CIRP Annals, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 623-630, 1991/01/01/ 1991.
[4]. G. Byrne and E. Scholta, "Environmentally Clean Machining Processes — A Strategic Approach," CIRP Annals, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 471-474, 1993/01/01/ 1993.
[5]. A. E. Diniz and R. Micaroni, "Cutting conditions for finish turning process aiming: the use of dry cutting," International Journal of Machine Tools and Manufacture, vol. 42, no. 8, pp. 899-904, 2002/06/01/ 2002.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

A Practical Approach to Storage Optimisation and Hydro Scheduling In Mixed Market Environment for Distribution Utility Owned Generation Stations

Country

::

India

Authors

::

S.R. Anand || C.A.Babu || V.P. Jagathyraj

Page No.

::

58-65

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

Optimisation of own hydro power generation of distribution utility in a market environment is a major decision making in the power procurement portfolio finalisation on annual basis to daily and real time basis. This involves hydro – thermal coordination problem and market operation optimisation in addition to the normal storage management which are attempted severally in the research world. Most of the studies on hydro power management revolve around the optimisation at station level considering the inflow, storage and the market conditionsresulting in the determination of local optima of profit maximisation. Many studies have been done in optimizing the power procurement cost at utility level and take the approach of optimisation of the hydro – thermal coordination. In a deregulated environment, the profit maximisation of all stake holders is to be considered along with the maximisation of social benefit..............

 

Keywords: Hydro Thermal Coordination, Storage optimisation, Spill threat, Control Area Optimisation.

[1]. The Electricity Act 2003 enacted by the Parliament of India on 26-03-2003 with subsequent amendments
[2]. Helene Ahlborg et al, Small-scale hydropower in Africa: Socio-technical designs for renewable energy in Tanzanian villages, Energy Research & Social Science 5 (2015) 20–33, Elsevier
[3]. MiladTahanan, Large-scale Unit Commitment under uncertainty: a literature survey, Universit`a di Pisa, Dipartimento di Informatica, Technical Report: TR-14-0, 2014
[4]. Najafi et al, A New Heuristic Algorithm for Unit Commitment Problem, Energy Procedia, Elsevier, 14(2012) 2005-2011
[5]. A. Arce, T. Ohishi, and S. Soares, Optimal Dispatch of Generating Units of the Itaipú Hydroelectric Plant, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 17, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2002

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Experimental investigation on Strength and Durability Properties of Paper sludge concrete

Country

::

India

Authors

::

Krishnakishor.K || Ms.Athira.B.Krishnan

Page No.

::

66-73

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

Cement is inevitable in the construction industry however large scale production of cement is causing environmental problems on one hand and depletion of natural resources on other hand. A lot many alternatives are tried out to replace cement so as to provide an aid to the rising environmental issues caused due to cement production. This paper studies the use of paper pulp as a replacement for cement. The innovative use of waste paper sludge in concrete as a supplementary cementitious material was tested as an alternative to traditional concrete. In this study waste paper sludge was partially replaced as 2.5%, 5%, 7.5% and 10% in place of cement in concrete for M20 mix and tested for its compressive strength, split tensile strength and flexural strength up to 7 days and 28 days of strength and compared with conventional concrete and an attempt has been made to study the strength and durability characteristics of concrete.

[1]. Sumit A Balwaik, S P Raut ; Utilization of Waste Paper Pulp by Partial Replacement of Cement in Concrete; International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications ; Vol. 1, Issue 2, pp.300-309 (2016) .
[2]. Sajad Ahmad, M. Iqbal Malik, Muzaffar Bashir Wani, Rafiq ; Utilization of waste paper pulp by partial replacement of cement in concrete; IOSR Journal of Engineering; Vol. 3, Issue 11 (November. 2013).
[3]. Cherian Varkey, Jefin P John, Neema V N, Namitha Joshy; study on utilization of waste paper sludge by partial replacement of cement in concrete ; International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology; Volume: 03 Issue: 05 May-2016
[4]. Ronaldo S. Gallardo and Mary Ann Q. Adajar ; Structural performance of concrete with paper sludge as fine aggregates partial replacement enhanced with admixtures; 2 Faculty, Dept. of Civil Engineering, De La Salle Univ.-Manila (2015).

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Determination of Flavonoid Content in Parthenium Hysterophorus and Comparative Study of Antibacterial Activities

Country

::

India

Authors

::

Shahnawaz Khan || Nikunaj Bhardwaj

Page No.

::

74-79

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

There is a need for human society to discover new antimicrobial compounds having diverse chemical structures and innovative mechanisms of action for novel and reemerging infectious diseases. Therefore, researchers are progressively turning their consideration to traditional medicine, looking for new leads to develop improved drugs against microbial infections. Plants yield a diverse variety of bioactive molecules, making them rich source of different types of medicines. Parthenium hysterophorus is a weed plant reported to be used as remedy for a number of diseases. Present work shows the activities of Parthenium hysterophorus L. stem, flower, and root. Samples were sequentially extracted with many solvents. Flower extracts exhibited presence of higher amount of flavonoids followed by stem, and root. Stem and root fractions showed noticeable antioxidant capacity in phosphomolybdate assay. The study open antibacterial potential in stem, flower, and root parts of Parthenium hysterophorus L.

 

Keywords: Antimicrobial, Parthenium hysterophorus L., Pathogens, Well diffusion method.

[1]. G. Barrera, "Oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation products in cancer progression and therapy," ISRN Oncology, vol. 2012, Article ID 137289, 21 pages, 2012.
[2]. S. Kumar, G. Chashoo, A. K. Saxena, and A. K. Pandey, "Parthenium hysterophorus: a probable source of anticancer, antioxidant and anti-HIV agents," BioMed Research Interna-tional, vol. 2013, Article ID 810734, 11 pages, 2013.
[3]. S. Kumar, U. K. Sharma, A. K. Sharma, and A. K. Pandey, "Pro-tective efficacy of Solanum xanthocarpum root extracts against free radical damage: phytochemical analysis and antioxidant effect," Cellular and Molecular Biology, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 171–178, 2012.
[4]. S. Kumar, A. Mishra, and A. K. Pandey, "Antioxidant mediated protective effect of Parthenium hysterophorus against oxidative damage using in vitro models," BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine, vol. 13, article 120, 2013.
[5]. http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/cancerstats/ mortality/all-cancers-combined/#citationstats.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Application of Ann to Ensure Software Reliability and Quality

Country

::

India

Authors

::

T. Ravi Kumar || Dr. T. Srinivasa Rao || Dr.Ch.V.M.K.Hari

Page No.

::

80-86

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

To ensure Software life and reliability software Quality analysis is one of the significant criteria. Software quality is been characterized under various parameters. Software risk analysis is one such basis required to distinguish the software reliability. At the point when software is arranged or being created by the sort of software and in addition the endeavors required to build up the software by and large characterizes the software hazard. For example, the accessibility of the required software, equipment, man power all are the prescient hazard factors.There can be errors introduced knowingly or unknowingly at different levels of the software design cycle (SDLC). Irrespective of this we can predict the software defects before the product makes into market it will be a value add on the businesses In this work, these all hazard factors are characterized under the fuzzy outing the demonstration..............

 

Keywords: ANN, Software quality, Design Metrics, Software fault prediction, SDLC, ANN, Fuzzy logic.

[1]. M.R. Lyu, Handbook of Software Reliability Engineering, vol. 222,IEEEComputer Society Press, CA, 1996.
[2]. IEEE Guide for the use of IEEE Standard Dictionary of Measures to Produce Reliable Software. IEEE, New York, IEEE Std. 982.2-1988, 1988.
[3]. [3] IEEE Standard Glossary of Software Engineering Terminology. IEEE, New York, IEEE Std. 610.12–1990, pp. 1–84, 1990.
[4]. K.Y. Cai, C.Y. Wem, M.L. Zhang, A critical review on software reliabilitymodeling, Reliab. Eng. Syst. safety 32 (3) (1991) 357–371.
[5]. C. Kaner, Software engineering metrics: what do they measure and how do we know?, in: 10th International Software Metrics Symposium, vol. 6, 2004.

 

Paper Type

::

Research Paper

Title

::

Simulation of Forecasting Performance Comparison of a Hybrid Model Integrated By Binomial Smoothing and Bayesian Model Averaging Techniques

Country

::

Nigeria

Authors

::

Augustine D.Pwasong || Caleb NanchenNimyel || Garba G. Naankang

Page No.

::

88-99

::
XXXX
aned
::
XXXX aned
iosrjen
::
XXXX iosrjen

Inthis study, a hybrid JPSN-AR model is proposed based on binomial smoothing (BS) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)techniques. The aim is to determine the combination technique that produced the best forecasting performance for the proposed hybrid model. The forecasting performance measurements employed to ascertain the foregoing assertion are the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). The results revealed that the best performance of the proposed hybrid model was achieved through the combination of the Jordan pi-sigma neural (JPSN) network model and an autoregressive(AR) time series model by the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique. Although the combination that produced the hybrid model made by the binomial smoothing technique also produced good forecasting performance by the hybrid model, but the combination technique with the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) technique puts the proposed hybrid model at its best. Simulations in this study are made possible by using MATLABsoftware version 8.03.

 

Keywords: Binomial smoothing; ARIMA; Combination;MAPE, RMSE; Forecasting, AR; Bayesian model averaging; Stationary; JPSN; Neural nets; Nonlinear; Linear and Performance.

[1]. Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Time series for macroeconomics and finance, Manuscript,University of Chicago
[2]. G. Peter Zhang, Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neuralnetwork model, Neurocomputing, vol. 50, pp. 159 - 175, 2003.World Academy of Science, Engin
[3]. Latifo˘glu, L., Ki¸si, Ö. and Latifo˘glu, F. (2015). Importance of hybrid models for forecastingof hydrological variable, Neural Computing and Applications 26(7): 1669–1680
[4]. C.J. Dong and Z. YLiu, A simulation study of artificial neural networksfor nonlinear time-series forecasting ,Computers & Operations Research,vol. 28, pp. 381–396, 2001
[5]. Raftery, A. E., Madigan, D. and Hoeting, J. A. (1997). Bayesian model averagingfor linear regression models, Journal of the American Statistical Association92(437): 179–191